The MLB Quality Start and the Loss/No Decision

By Travis PflanzApril 16, 2012

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The MLB Quality Start and the Loss/No Decision

I know I am not the only baseball fan who doesn’t believes a MLB pitcher who goes out and throws 6 innings and allows 3 earned runs, a 4.50 ERA, should be considered a quality start, am I?

I have made this simple spreadsheet to track the quality starts thrown in the MLB in 2012. As well, I have “created” my own stat, called Quality Start Plus (QS+). This stat requires a pitcher to throw 6 – 6.2 innings with 2 or less earned runs OR 7+ innings with 3 or less earned runs.

I do acknowledge, as stated on the Wikipedia page about Quality Starts:

An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.

The QS+ is slightly different, making sure the pitcher goes at least 6 innings and has less than a 4.00 ERA.

The second thing this spreadsheet does is track the outcome for the pitcher in his quality start. I am a huge fan of fantasy baseball, and if you’re like me, you don’t like to score the quality start because you do not want to overly reward the pitcher who gets the win in the game.

For years, I have been asking various fantasy baseball websites to offer scoring for pitchers who throw a quality start, yet their effort results in a Loss or No Decision. To me, this would greatly help balance pitcher scoring by rewarding a solid performance from a pitcher who simply did not receive run-support from his team’s offense.

MLB Quality Starts & Quality Starts Plus Stats
Total Number of MLB Starts	482
Total Number of Quality Starts	240
Percent of MLB Starts as Quality Starts	49.79%
Total Quality Starts as Wins	127
Percent of Quality Starts as Wins	52.92%
Percent of MLB Starts as Quality Start Wins	26.35%
Total Quality Starts as Loss or No Decision	113
Percent of Quality Starts as Loss or No Decision	47.08%
Total Quality Starts Plus (QS+)	212
Percent of MLB Starts as QS+	43.98%
Percent of QS+ as Wins	55.66%
Percent of QS+ as Loss or No Decision	44.34%
Percent of Quality Starts NOT QS+	11.67%

Date	Player	IP	ER	Result	QS+
3/28	Felix Hernandez	8	1	No Decision	TRUE
3/28	Brandon McCarthy	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
3/29	Bartolo Colon	8	1	Win	TRUE
3/29	Jason Vargas	6.2	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/4	Kyle Lohse	7.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/4	Josh Johnson	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/5	Roy Halladay	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/5	Justin Masterson	8	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/5	Justin Verlander	8	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/5	Ryan Dempster	7.2	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/5	Erik Bedard	7	1	Loss	TRUE
4/5	Johnny Cueto	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/5	Jon Lester	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/5	Stephen Strasburg	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/5	Mark Buehrle	6	2	Loss	TRUE
4/6	Chad Billingsley	8.1	0	Win	TRUE
4/6	Jared Weaver	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/6	Jake Arrieta	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/6	Jeremy Guthrie	7	3	Win	TRUE
4/6	Ian Kennedy	6.2	3	Win	FALSE
4/6	Wandy Rodriquez	6.1	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/6	Bruce Chen	6	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/6	John Danks	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/6	Jaime Garcia	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/6	Colby Lewis	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/7	Ricky Nolasco	8	3	Win	TRUE
4/7	Zack Greinke	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/7	Lucas Harrell	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/7	Tommy Hunter	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/7	Ubaldo Jiminez	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/7	Brandon Morrow	7	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/7	Luke Hochevar	6.1	2	Win	TRUE
4/7	David Price	6.1	2	Win	TRUE
4/7	R.A. Dickey	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/7	Matt Garza	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/7	Derek Holland	6	3	No Decision	FALSE
4/7	Jeff Karstens	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/7	Cliff Lee	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/7	Jake Peavy	6	3	No Decision	FALSE
4/8	Jason Hammel	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/8	Derek Lowe	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/8	Jeremy Hellickson	8.2	0	Win	TRUE
4/8	James McDonald	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/8	Jonathon Niese	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/8	Bud Norris	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/8	Vance Worley	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/8	Juan Nicasio	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/8	Jeff Samardzija	8.2	1	Win	TRUE
4/8	Jordan Zimmermann	7	1	Loss	TRUE
4/8	Clayton Richard	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/8	Matt Harrison	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/9	Anibal Sanchez	6.1	2	Win	TRUE
4/9	Barry Zito	9	0	Win	TRUE
4/9	Shaun Marcum	6	3	Win	FALSE
4/9	Jake Westbrook	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/9	J.A. Happ	6	3	Win	FALSE
4/9	C.J. Wilson	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/9	Chris Sale	6.2	1	Win	TRUE
4/9	Ivan Nova	7	2	Win	TRUE
4/9	Henderson Alvarez	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/9	Tommy Milone	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/10	Kevin Correia	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Clayton Kershaw	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Kyle Lohse	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/10	Mike Leake	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/10	Trevor Cahill	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Edinson Volquez	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Matt Moore	6.2	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Rick Porcello	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/10	Neftali Feliz	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/10	Blake Beavan	6.1	1	Loss	TRUE
4/10	Danny Duffy	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/10	Graham Godfrey	6	2	Loss	TRUE
4/11	Stephen Strasburg	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/11	Jon Lester	8	3	Loss	TRUE
4/11	Ricky Romero	8.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/11	Yovani Gallardo	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/11	Ryan Dempster	6.2	2	Loss	TRUE
4/11	James Shields	8	2	Win	TRUE
4/11	Joe Saunders	7	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/11	Brandon McCarthy	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/11	Roy Halladay	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/11	Kevin Millwood	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/11	Colby Lewis	6.2	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/11	Chad Billingsley	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/12	Gio Gonzalez	7	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/12	Matt Garza	8.2	0	Win	TRUE
4/12	Madison Bumgarner	7.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/12	Derek Holland	7.1	2	Win	TRUE
4/12	Mark Buehrle	6.1	3	Loss	FALSE
4/12	Joe Blanton	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/12	Ian Kennedy	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/13	Hiroki Kuroda	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/13	Matt Cain	9	0	Win	TRUE
4/13	Josh Beckett	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/13	R.A. Dickey	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/13	Max Scherzer	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/13	Jake Peavy	6.2	2	Win	TRUE
4/13	Bronson Arroyo	7.1	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/13	Jordan Zimmerman	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/13	Derek Lowe	6.2	3	Win	FALSE
4/13	Matt Harrison	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/13	Bartolo Colon	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/13	Felix Hernandez	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/14	Chris Volstad	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/14	C.J. Wilson	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/14	Homer Bailey	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/14	Edwin Jackson	9	1	Win	TRUE
4/14	Jonathan Niese	6.2	0	Win	TRUE
4/14	Shaun Marcum	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/14	Mike Minor	7.1	0	Win	TRUE
4/14	Henderson Alvarez	7	3	No Decision	TRUE
4/14	Carlos Zambrano	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/14	Gavin Floyd	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/14	Barry Zito	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/14	Hector Noesi	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/14	Ted Lilly	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/15	J.A. Happ	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/15	Anibal Sanchez	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/15	Kyle Drabek	7.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/15	Mike Pelfrey	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/15	Cole Hammels	7	2	Win	TRUE
4/15	Rick Porcello	7.2	1	Win	TRUE
4/15	Brandon Beachy	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/15	Liam Hendriks	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/15	Jake Westbrook	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/15	Trevor Cahill	7.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/15	Blake Beavan	7	3	Win	TRUE
4/15	Kevin Correia	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/15	Ryan Vogelsong	6.1	2	Loss	TRUE
4/16	Justin Verlander	9	2	Win	TRUE
4/16	Danny Duffy	6.2	3	Loss	FALSE
4/16	Dillon Gee	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/16	James Shields	8.1	0	Win	TRUE
4/16	Daniel Bard	6.2	1	Loss	TRUE
4/16	Stephen Strasburg	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/16	Carl Pavano	7	3	Win	TRUE
4/16	Cory Luebke	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/16	Jake Arrieta	6.2	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/16	Joe Saunders	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/16	Jered Weaver	6.2	0	Win	TRUE
4/16	Roy Halladay	8	2	Win	TRUE
4/17	Drew Smyly	6	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Bruce Chen	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/17	Ricky Romero	6	3	Win	FALSE
4/17	Johnny Cueto	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Kyle Lohse	7	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	C.C. Sabathia	7.1	3	Win	TRUE
4/17	Wandy Rodriquez	7	1	Loss	TRUE
4/17	Gio Gonzalez	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/17	Colby Lewis	7	2	Win	TRUE
4/17	Ryan Dempster	6	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Josh Johnson	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	John Danks	7	3	Loss	TRUE
4/17	Chad Billingsley	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Yovani Gallardo	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Tyson Ross	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Dan Haren	6.2	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/17	Jamie Moyer	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/17	Madison Bumgarner	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/18	Max Scherzer	6	3	Win	FALSE
4/18	Jamie Garcia	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/18	Derek Holland	7	2	Win	TRUE
4/18	Josh Beckett	7	3	Loss	TRUE
4/18	Daniel Hudson	7.2	7.2	Loss	FALSE
4/18	Lucas Harrell	6.2	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/18	Jordan Zimmermann	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/18	Jake Peavy	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/18	Mark Buehrle	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/18	Bartolo Colon	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/18	Chris Capuano	6	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/18	Zack Greinke	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/18	Jason Vargas	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/18	Cliff Lee	10	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/18	Matt Cain	9	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/19	Mike Minor	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/19	Jason Hammel	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/19	Bronson Arroyo	8	3	Win	TRUE
4/19	Yu Darvish	6.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/19	Aaron Harang	6	3	Win	FALSE
4/19	C.J. Wilson	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/19	Josh Tomlin	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/19	Felix Hernandez	8	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/19	Vance Worley	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/19	Joe Wieland	6	1	Loss	TRUE
4/20	Brandon Beachy	7.1	0	Win	TRUE
4/20	Matt Moore	6.1	3	No Decision	FALSE
4/20	Lance Lynn	7	1	Wn	TRUE
4/20	Ivan Nova	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/20	Homer Bailey	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/20	Carlos Zambrano	7	1	Loss	TRUE
4/20	Ross Detwiler	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/20	Jerome Williams	6.2	3	Win	FALSE
4/20	Jonathan Niese	6	3	No Decision	FALSE
4/20	Ubaldo Jiminez	6	2	Win	TRUE
4/20	Ted Lilly	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/20	J.A. Happ	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/20	Chris Sale	6.1	3	Win	FALSE
4/20	Jhoulys Chacin	7	3	No Decision	TRUE
4/20	Shaun Marcum	6	3	No Decision	FALSE
4/20	Cole Hammels	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/20	Edinson Volquez	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/21	Tommy Hanson	7	2	Win	TRUE
4/21	Joe Saunders	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/21	Carl Pavano	6	2	Loss	TRUE
4/21	James Shields	8	1	Win	TRUE
4/21	Jake Westbrook	6.2	2	Loss	TRUE
4/21	A.J. Burnett	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/21	Philip Humber	9	0	Win	TRUE
4/21	Blake Beavan	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/21	Paul Maholm	6	1	Win	TRUE
4/21	Matt Harrison	7.2	3	Win	TRUE
4/21	Anibal Sanchez	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/21	Stephen Strasburg	6	0	No Decision	TRUE
4/21	Felix Doubront	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/21	Ryan Vogelsong	7	3	No Decision	TRUE
4/21	Mike Pelfrey	8	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/21	Neftali Feliz	8	3	Loss	TRUE
4/21	Justin Verlander	6	0	Win	TRUE
4/21	Clayton Kershaw	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/21	Kyle Weiland	7	3	Loss	TRUE
4/21	Jered Weaver	9	3	Win	TRUE
4/21	Brandon McCarthy	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/21	Roy Halladay	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/21	Cory Luebke	8	0	Win	TRUE
4/22	Ricky Romero	8	2	Win	TRUE
4/22	Ian Kennedy	7	3	Win	TRUE
4/22	Kyle Lohse	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/22	Eric Bedard	7	2	Loss	TRUE
4/22	Colby Lewis	7	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/22	Drew Smyly	6	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/22	Wei-Yin Chen	6.1	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/22	Dan Haren	7.1	2	No Decision	TRUE
4/22	Wandy Rodriquez	7	0	Win	TRUE
4/22	Tyson Ross	6.2	1	Win	TRUE
4/22	Jeremy Guthrie	7	1	Win	TRUE
4/22	Yovani Gallardo	7	1	No Decision	TRUE
4/22	Johnny Cueto	6.1	1	Win	TRUE
4/22	Joe Blanton	6	3	Loss	FALSE
4/22	Anthony Bass	6	0	Win	TRUE

Legend

Date – The date of the player’s quality start
Player – The player who threw a quality start
IP – Innings pitched by the player in quality start
ER – Earned runs by the pitcher in quality start
Result – The result of the pitcher in his quality start
QS+ – Did the pitcher reach Quality Start Plus in his quality start? (6-6.2IP and 2 or less ER or 7+IP and 3 or less ER)

I will update this spreadsheet and this page weekly with all MLB quality starts and results.

If you think fantasy baseball websites should offer a way to score a quality start in a Loss or No Decision, copy the text below and send an email to any or all the fantasy baseball websites listed below.

I believe this website’s fantasy baseball league manager/commish software should allow a way for fantasy baseball leagues to score a quality start when a pitcher receives a loss or no-decision, without over-rewarding a pitcher who receives a win with his quality start. For more information, please visit: http://crowncrazed.com/quality-start-loss-no-decision. Thank you!

Fantasy Baseball League Website Contacts

CBS Sports
Fantrax Fantasy Sports
ESPN
Yahoo!
FanStar: fanstar@gmail.com
FleaFlicker
RotoWire: support@rotowire.com
Your Fantasy Team Sucks
Fantasy Sports Commish: support@fantasysportscommish.com
Fantasy Sports Network

It will be very interesting to see how the win percentage among QS+ compares to the win percentage of a regular Quality Start. Currently (through 4/15), the QS+ yields ~2.64% more wins for the starting pitcher (QS 54.62%, QS+ 57.26%).

Also interesting, nearly half (46.43%) of all MLB starts are quality starts and more than a quarter of all MLB starts result in a quality start win (25.36%), while 10% of all quality starts do not qualify as QS+.

These are the stats I will be most interested in tracking as the season goes on.

If you find any errors (since I enter everything manually) or would like me to add a fantasy website to the list, send me an email.

Let me know your comments about QS+ or Losses and No Decisions in the comments below

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